Konstantin Vladimirovich Tserazov predicts market growth against the backdrop of corporate news in February 2023

The year opened on an optimistic note—Russian indices ended January with growth. An independent expert, economist Konstantin Tserazov spoke about the results of January 2023 and forecasts for February in our interview.

The Moscow Exchange index ended January with an increase of 2.7%, and the RTS index added 1.7%. The shares of Moscow Exchange, St. Petersburg Exchange, Seligdar, Mechel, Aeroflot, Sovcomflot and Globaltrans were in demand in January. The outsider of the month was the oil and gas sector, which lost 1.7%, and the greatest growth was noted in the IT sector, which grew by 13.5%, says ex — Otkritie top manager Konstantin Tserazov. Among corporate stories, the expert notes the papers of Sberbank, which published strong reports for December 2022 and the entire 2022 under RAS. Polymetal published good operating results for 2022, which, among other things, announced its intention to carry out redomiciliation, which will allow the company to return to paying dividends.

The ruble was under pressure in January amid declining demand in commodity markets, testing new lows since last spring. According to analysts at Otkritie Bank, in January the Russian currency weakened against the dollar by 1%. Oil prices tried to rise in January, but failed to break through the level of $90 per barrel of Brent; at the end of the month, oil prices lost about 2.7%.

February will begin with the opening of meetings of the Federal Reserve, the ECB and the Bank of England, at which European regulators can raise the key rate by 50 bp, and the Fed can increase the rate by 25 bp. The main negative factor for our market will remain the threat of new sanctions, including the possible introduction of a ceiling on oil prices, predicts Konstantin Tserazov. Corporate news will remain the main market driver in February. Investors will focus on the operational and financial statements of a number of companies for 2022, in particular, the results will be presented by Unipro, RusHydro, Fix Price, RusAgro. Konstantin Tserazov believes that opening medium-term positions is advisable for shares of companies focused on the domestic market, or those least exposed to sanctions risk.